The Two Constituencies of Wisconsin

Republicans have held 60+ percent majorities in the Wisconsin State Assembly for the past eight years, while electing Democrats to statewide office, including Tammy Baldwin twice to Senate and Tony Evers to the Governor’s Office in 2018. Not shaken, the Republican State Legislature responded to losing the governor’s office by passing lame-duck legislation to weaken the powers of the office.

Why is the GOP emboldened to act so aggressively, even in the face of a seemingly leftward political swing? Gerrymandered districts were redrawn in 2010, which made winning the majority of the State Assembly dramatically easier for Republicans, simply by “packing” predominantly Democratic areas into a select few districts. The home of Democratic Assemblyman and former judge, Fred Kessler, was even drawn out of his own district, meaning he had to move houses to continue representing his constituents.

In the past four elections, Republicans conceded a full 26% of seats without even putting up a candidate, because their majority is so guaranteed. In 16 of Wisconsin’s 99 districts, there has not been a Republican candidate in at least eight years.

Scott Walker was the public face of eight tumultuous years in Wisconsin politics, Legislature support was there every step of the way. As an example, the Legislature eased environmental regulations alongside a $4–5 billion tax credit for the foreign-owned Foxconn, to ostensibly create manufacturing jobs — the company announced this week this is no longer the case. Foxconn may only bring 1,000 non-blue collar jobs and still qualify for hundreds of millions in subsidies. Employees attempting suicide at Foxconn’s Chinese facilities became so frequent that the company put up nets to catch them. This is the quality, “free-market” business environment fostered by the Wisconsin GOP. Unfortunately, even if a good 60% of Wisconsin opposed Foxconn, their voices would still be silenced by gerrymandered districts.

The current system creates two distinct constituencies in Wisconsin. Under this district map, a whopping 42% of State Assembly seats are won by default, with one major-party candidate running in the election. In a healthy democracy, should NEARLY HALF of elections have only one candidate?

The inevitable long-term effects of gerrymandering in Wisconsin are worsening polarization and demoralized belief in the democratic process. Democrat districts will only serve Democratic constituents and Republican districts will only serve their Republican constituents.

Just how bad is gerrymandering in Wisconsin?

Even in years when they win more than 50% of the vote, Wisconsin Democrats never gain more even 40% of State Assembly seats. While Democratic candidates simultaneously win statewide presidential, senatorial, or gubernatorial elections, Republicans always win more than 60 percent of seats.

Consider the margins of victory in 2018. Statewide, Democrats performed quite well, voting more in in State Assembly elections than for Hillary Clinton in 2016. Despite jumping from 45 to 53 percent in total votes, Democrats only gained ONE seat, up to just 36, in the 99-seat Assembly. Republican comfortably won most seats by more than 10 points, content to surrender many Democratic-districts — and 30 percent of all seats — without opposition.

The long-term political consequences are particularly alarming. With limited resources at their disposal, Democrats and Republicans will not commit candidates for every Assembly seat.

In such guaranteed Democrat or Republican districts, a candidate’s only competition comes from their primary. There is no incentive for moderate candidates — only appealing to the base of the predominant party in the district. Partisan districts elect strongly-partisan candidates and tension between the parties only gets worse.

Worse, Wisconsin’s misrepresentative democracy fails to actualize the policy preferences of a majority of citizens — public opinion on the direction Wisconsin should take. The Wisconsin GOP strongly opposes numerous policies supported by a large number of Wisconsin residents:

• 61% of Wisconsin supports the legalization of marijuana
• 55% of Wisconsin supports raising the minimum wage
• 63% of Wisconsin supported legal same-sex marriage, before the ban was overturned by the Supreme Court
• 53% of Wisconsin is supports legal abortion in most/all cases

Or the recently revealed kicker:

• 72% of registered voters believe district maps should be drawn by an independent, non-partisan commission

With electoral majorities secured by gerrymandered districts, Republicans are increasingly emboldened to recklessly legislate — whether serving major campaign donors or weakening the powers of a Democratic governor (55% of Wisconsin opposed this move, too).

The icing on top — taxpayers are on track to pay $3.5 million to cover the legal challenges to redistricting. In a rare decision, a three-judge panel ruled Wisconsin’s maps constituted a partisan gerrymander in violation of the 1st and 14th amendments. Unfortunately, the Supreme Court refused to hear the case, Gill v. Whitford, on procedural grounds. That does not end the battle, but in 2020, the Legislature will once again redraw Wisconsin’s district maps, so a legal challenge now might be less fruitful.

Save for significant partisan shifts within districts — or more realistically action from Congress or the Supreme Court — Wisconsin’s divisions and frustration will only deepen. Until a fairer map exists in Wisconsin, its electorate will remain dissatisfied, disenfranchised, and confused as to why their democracy fails to represent the views of its citizens.

Omer Arain is a research analyst and graduate of University of Wisconsin’s La Follette School of Public Affairs. Follow him on Twitter at @omersarain.